Invading Northern Iraq: Threat or Bluff?
By Senerdem on Sunday, October 21 2007, 12:18 - Permalink
I wanted to wait for a while before writing about the possible military operation in Northern Iraq. Two weeks ago the first steps for an extended military action are taken in a summit between heads of the military and the government and then the decision is voted in the parliament and deputies in parliament cast an overwhelming 507 votes in favour of the motion to 19 against, which permits the government to order military operations inside Iraq within the next year.
At first I was not sure whether the government was bluffing or not. I still have some doubts about it but I don’t think that they will come up with a large scale military operation in Northern Iraq. There are several reasons to that. Prime Minister Erdogan talked in the parliament last week and said that the possible military campaign would target solely the terrorist organization PKK. After these words one can come up with the conclusion that they are not after an extended operation. Another thing is, a commentator of the Hurriyet newspaper Yilmaz Ozdil pointed out an important detail about the situation. He asks a simple question: “What would be the first thing that a country does before invading another country?” and the answer is withdrawal of its own citizens who live in that particular country. Right now around 50 thousand Turks are living in the Northern Iraq. Ozdil adds that “If you don’t draw back your people from the conflict zone they will become mere targets”. So far the Erdogan government did nothing to call back the Turks who live in that region.
These signs may be small but they are a clear indicator which shows that Turkey is not after invading Northern Iraq. That kind of full scale invasion is not reasonable either. There are too many things that Turkey will risk with such military operation. The relations with the EU are not going so well and it will fall in to a crisis with a military campaign. EU will probably freeze the negotiations for an unspecified time. It will become a great asset in the hand s of Sarkozy also. Maybe it’s a long shot but a possible extended military campaign may favour Tassos Papadopoulos in Cyprus too. He loves to manipulate Cyprus issue and pump up the nationalism in the island and a Turkey invading Northern Iraq is just ideal for him. Without getting rid of Papadopoulos it is impossible to solve the Cyprus issue. So I guess its all linked. Right now Turkey can not afford such a military campaign because of the interdependence of the country.
But we are still talking about Turkey. In 1974 the government shocked the Western world with the invasion of the Cyprus. I hope this time they won’t go after some crazy adventures that we can not afford and do the reasonable thing. For now it seems like Turkey got what it wants: The international attention. Northern Iraq and PKK became a serious issue in the West also and I believe that was the main idea of this bluff game of Turkey.
Comments
Nice reasoning. Neither do I believe Turkey has the wish and capacity to undertake a large scale military action in Northern Iraq. Best, E.
but conditions became more and more heavier for the government especialy after latest's border clashes pkk-military.
and now if all turkey come to the point that anyway war comes to turkey even turkey doesnt go towars it, so sensation "ready to pay any price" will overcome.
Nor do I. What would be the outcome; a happy peace in the border area - no? There would be another endless, politically destabilizing, money hemorrhaging and internationally isolating disaster, and this would hurt Turkey badly.
Only when the regional situation deteriorates into absolute chaos can Turkey move, in which case she might as well take the whole of northern Iraq, with its oil, and be done with it.
There sure will be an operation in Northern Iraq actually there is right now and has been for three years operations at the region but not a large scale one... I can assure you Turkey is not after the oil of Northern Iraq. If that was the case the country would have joined the US invasion of Iraq without a second thought... The targets are simple PKK militia and extending the current buffer zone at the border a bit more... This does not need a full fledged military campaign... the aims determine the type of the campaign that you will undertake...
I never intended that remark about taking the oilfields seriously. What I meant was that if the situation collapses into outright war, with every regional participant involved, there would be nothing more to lose.
Of course, this would mean the whole regional Kurdish 'nation' at perpetual war with Turkey.
This is a difficult one. Turkey has recently made perfectly proper concessions to Turkish Kurds and she has no reason to accept incursions from terrorist Iraqis who just happen to be Kurds too. Iraq must police its own people, and America must support this - but this isn't happening. I sometimes wonder if Turkey isn't being manoeuvred into a position where she finds herself fighting a slow-burn tribal war on her eastern frontier, in which innocent people will be killed, while having the international liberal community haranguing her for aggression, intolerance and all the historical Armenian stuff. The Cyprus issue will inflame once more, and generally Turkey will find herself even more friendless than she is already - and all no fault of hers. The diplomatic stakes here are huge. I wish Turkey the best of luck.