turkishgambit en

System Error in Turkey

Senerdem — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 14:59:00 +01:00

Everything that we know about the Turkish politics started to turn up side down. The pro-Islamic ruling party AKP started to stand strong side by side with their arch-rivals: The Army. Moreover, the main opposition party CHP and the nationalist party MHP –the admirers of the strong Turkish military- went so far as to accuse the chief of the general staff Yasar Buyukanit with being a coward.

All these things happened in one week. The surprise mass military offence of Turkish troops against the pro-Kurdish PKK militia lasted only 8 days and finished as surprisingly as it started. Right after the visit of the U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the General Staff declared on its web site that the operation is finished and the troops started to withdraw from the Northern Iraq. The military said the ground operation had achieved its objectives, including the deaths of some 240 PKK members and the destruction or seizure of PKK equipment and facilities. Both the General Staff and the government say Turkey reserves the right to send troops back into Northern Iraq against the PKK if this is deemed necessary.

Then came the accusations of the People’s Republican Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Deniz Baykal –the leader of the CHP- accused both the government and the Army by selling out Turkish national interests to the Americans. "The ending of the ground operation had surprised whole world and Turkey... Why Turkey decided to end this when it reached its the most successful (point)? Everybody wonders the answer of this question" Baykal said. Devlet Bahceli –the ferocious preacher/leader of the MHP- went even further and blamed the General Staff for helping the image of the outlawed separatists by issuing statements that effectively depicted them as worthy opponents.

The reply from the General Staff raised the tension. The statement published on the web page of the General Staff described the protest of the CHP and the MHP as “meaningless attacks”.

Basically on this particular issue, the Army and the AKP government are sharing the same view which creates a great deal of confusion. What can we sort out from this major shift in Turkish political dynamics? A respected law scholar Mithat Sancar claims that the defenders of the military solution (implying CHP and MHP) for the Kurdish issue came to a dead end and they still reject to see the political solution alternatives and this creates a major tension between the opposition parties and the Army. He states that a clash between MHP/CHP and the Army in addition to the AKP vs. the Army struggle may ignite a normalization process in the country. Army may withdraw its influence from the political arena and it may become a “normal” institution.

This view is a bit too optimistic for a country like Turkey. The Army will keep opposing to the “anti-secular/pro-Islamic” policies of the AKP government when ever they find a chance. In those cases they will stand side by side again with the CHP and MHP. This recent shift does not look like the beginning of a new ongoing trend in Turkey. It is just a system error and it will fix itself. Everything will return to normal with the next pro-Islamic legislation attempt of the AKP government. Army will declare its discomfort; the CHP and MHP will keep attacking to the government with the support of the General Staff. Turkey needs something more than the trivial incidents to drive the Army away from the politics. Still it is interesting to see AKP and the Army at the same side.

Turkish troops are in Northern Iraq

Senerdem — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 21:59:00 +01:00

It was a matter of time. On Thursday, Turkish ground troops started to cross the Iraqi border and they initiated a mass offensive against the Kurdish militia group PKK. In October, the parliament gave the go ahead to the army for “necessary” military operations in Northern Iraq. Then we started to hear and see news about several air strikes but now things are getting serious.

It’s been only 3 days that the ground operation started and some contradicting information started to flow from the region. Officials say that only 3,000 troops crossed the border and they advanced about 10 kilometers and some other sources like the Turkish Daily News claims that at least 10,000 troops are currently conducting a mass operation in mountainous Northern Iraq and they advanced 25 kilometers. Like these confusing information, the timing and possible outcomes of this mission are raising questions. The Turkish military was expected to launch a ground operation in spring because of the harsh winter conditions of the region. What was their rush? For how far they are planning to advance and how long will it take?

But one thing is certain. Turkey got dragged in to a mess. So far the death toll is 8 but unfortunately it may rise and this already started to create some concerns in the country. The well known menaces of Iraq will obviously become a bigger issue for Turkey and the tension between the Kurds and the Turks within the country is likely to rise. One of the biggest fears is the possibility of PKK attacks or bombings in big cities of Turkey. Marginalized PKK resistance may very well try to carry their struggle to Istanbul or Ankara.

Maybe the sole comforting point is the support of the US. Washington confirmed that it had been notified in advance of the latest Turkish move, and received assurances that it would be directed solely at positions or fighters of the PKK. An operation in such scale without the consent of the US would have created disastrous results.

This week will be extremely crucial for Turkey. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani will pay a visit to his counterpart Abdullah Gul in Ankara and the U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to visit Turkey on February 27-28. These meetings are likely to shed some light on the recent developments but still this surprise attack of the Turkish military stays as a big question mark.

Turkey got headscarved

Senerdem — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 22:24:00 +01:00

It’s been a while that I couldn’t write anything but since the whole headscarf issue got “out of control” in Turkey, I feel like I need to say something about it.

I still remember that moment: Merve Kavakci -a newly elected parliamentary from the Virtue Party the predecessor of the ruling AKP- welcomed with boos when she tried to make her debut with her headscarf in the Turkish National Assembly. After the elections in 1999 as a well educated conservative woman she got in to the parliament to attend the oath taking ceremony and she faced with the old guards of the republic yelling “Get out!”. Headscarf and its position in public life was a big question in those days for the country and apparently it still is.

AKP government under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership decided a couple of weeks ago to abolish the ban on allowing women to wear the traditional Islamic headscarf while attending higher education. This move from the government was more than enough to change the primary agenda of the people. Suddenly everyone started to write, broadcast and talk about the headscarf issue. The mighty secularists and the devout Islamists came face to face for another showdown. The operation in Northern Iraq or the upcoming elections in Cyprus suddenly became insignificant events for the media. No one talks about the “Brave martyrs of the nation who gave their lives fighting against the Kurdish PKK militia”. Not anymore.

If you go to a Turkish university, it is possible to see girls in the campus wearing wigs. It was awkward for me as well to take classes with those girls with huge heads: First headscarf, then the wig. There is nothing more ridiculous then people wearing wigs just in order to get in to their universities. If you look at the whole conflict free from political forces surrounding it, you will say that it has to be allowed for the sake of the liberty of women. But if you consider the past actions of the AKP you may approach to their “good intentioned” decision in a more skeptical way. In 2004 AKP tried to prohibit sexual intercourse before marriage by law and they also tried to prohibit alcohol selling in particular districts of the big cities (especially touristic districts in Istanbul) in 2005. They failed twice because of broad public opposition. Now their strategy seems to be changed: Instead of prohibiting non Islamic notions, allowing Islamic aspects to appear in public life is easier and starting from the biggest symbol of the political Islam is not surprising.

The secularists in Turkey represented by the Republican People’s Party in the parliament are helping AKP without even knowing it. They line themselves with the military -the old overseer of the republic and its secular core- and they got crushed by the AKP in 2007 elections. They are still trying to hide behind the legacy of Ataturk who founded the country on the secular principles. Their zealous stand does not work and intimidate people. They tasted it bitterly during the last elections and yet they still talk about Turkey transforming into another Iran.

There are rumors saying that by spring Turkish military will launch a ground operation in Northern Iraq. The Greek part of Cyprus will hold an historic election at the end of this month which may lead to the reunification of the island. Hectic days are waiting the AKP government but they got themselves entangled by a headscarf.

Invading Northern Iraq: Threat or Bluff?

Senerdem — Sun, 21 Oct 2007 12:18:00 +02:00

I wanted to wait for a while before writing about the possible military operation in Northern Iraq. Two weeks ago the first steps for an extended military action are taken in a summit between heads of the military and the government and then the decision is voted in the parliament and deputies in parliament cast an overwhelming 507 votes in favour of the motion to 19 against, which permits the government to order military operations inside Iraq within the next year.

At first I was not sure whether the government was bluffing or not. I still have some doubts about it but I don’t think that they will come up with a large scale military operation in Northern Iraq. There are several reasons to that. Prime Minister Erdogan talked in the parliament last week and said that the possible military campaign would target solely the terrorist organization PKK. After these words one can come up with the conclusion that they are not after an extended operation. Another thing is, a commentator of the Hurriyet newspaper Yilmaz Ozdil pointed out an important detail about the situation. He asks a simple question: “What would be the first thing that a country does before invading another country?” and the answer is withdrawal of its own citizens who live in that particular country. Right now around 50 thousand Turks are living in the Northern Iraq. Ozdil adds that “If you don’t draw back your people from the conflict zone they will become mere targets”. So far the Erdogan government did nothing to call back the Turks who live in that region.

These signs may be small but they are a clear indicator which shows that Turkey is not after invading Northern Iraq. That kind of full scale invasion is not reasonable either. There are too many things that Turkey will risk with such military operation. The relations with the EU are not going so well and it will fall in to a crisis with a military campaign. EU will probably freeze the negotiations for an unspecified time. It will become a great asset in the hand s of Sarkozy also. Maybe it’s a long shot but a possible extended military campaign may favour Tassos Papadopoulos in Cyprus too. He loves to manipulate Cyprus issue and pump up the nationalism in the island and a Turkey invading Northern Iraq is just ideal for him. Without getting rid of Papadopoulos it is impossible to solve the Cyprus issue. So I guess its all linked. Right now Turkey can not afford such a military campaign because of the interdependence of the country.

But we are still talking about Turkey. In 1974 the government shocked the Western world with the invasion of the Cyprus. I hope this time they won’t go after some crazy adventures that we can not afford and do the reasonable thing. For now it seems like Turkey got what it wants: The international attention. Northern Iraq and PKK became a serious issue in the West also and I believe that was the main idea of this bluff game of Turkey.

Malaysia vs. Turkey

Senerdem — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 20:13:00 +02:00

Recently Turkey found itself in yet another peculiar discussion. People started to ask a weird question: “Can Turkey turn in to another Malaysia?”

Everything started with the ex-Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke’s comments about Turkey. A month ago, he described Turkey as the "Second moderate Islamist country after Malaysia”. That was enough to start a frenzy in Turkey. The whole public discussions about the EU membership and the presidential elections suddenly ceased and people started to ask each other “After all are we turning in to an Islamist country?” Most prestigious newspapers of the country started to send reporters to Malaysia in order to get more detailed information from that country. After 85 years of its establishment, Turkey still gives the impression of a country in search of its identity. Does religion play a role in the country’s governance? Where will Islam stand in this country, inside or outside of the state? The AKP government itself makes it harder to respond these questions.

The “Malaysia” discussion is based on the headscarf issue again. In Turkey headscarf is considered as a political symbol for years. The religious groups who were in favor of the Islamist rule in the country used the headscarf card to push the secularists to the corner. The constitution prohibits the headscarf in the universities and in public sphere. So called moderate Islamist ruling party AKP probably will change that article in the new constitution that they are still working on.

Malaysia also experienced a tension between secularists and Islamists. Headscarf was a delicate issue in that country also. Last week, Hurriyet (a Turkish newspaper) wrote that, right after the Malaysian government let women with headscarves to enter the universities and to the public sphere, a huge transformation towards Islam unleashed. The main question is, Can Turkey become a similar case? My answer is no and the reason is the EU.

As soon as the AKP government gets some negative signals from the Commission they will step back like they did before. A couple years ago they tried to prohibit the sexual intercourse before marriage by law. But the harsh reaction from the EU made them abandon that meaningless agenda. They will try to implement some religious notions to the country but EU won’t let that happen. At least I hope that they won’t let that happen because if they will, the Turkish army may use this opportunity to intervene to the political process once again. It certainly won't be a coup but they will find a way to rise the tension.

Photos: Hurriyet Newspaper/ Schools in Malaysia

The president is dead, long live the new president

Senerdem — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 18:38:00 +02:00

It’s that simple, Abdullah Gul is the new president of Turkey and this time, the army just couldn’t do anything. Now this is a good sign of modernization and Europeanization if you want to call it in that way. Is he a nice guy or can he represent the country as a leader (well almost a symbolic one but a leader after all)? I doubt it. The former president Ahmet Necdet Sezer had a modest and rather low profile image but he was respected and he played a great role if you think about the checks and balances in the country. He was some kind of a control mechanism over AKP and he did a pretty good job actually.

After Abdullah Gul’s election as the new President, AKP just took over every single crucial spot at the top of the country. They have the Parliament, they have the Presidency and they have the Government. What could you ask more than that?

Abdullah Gul’s presidency is the peak point for AKP and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. From now on the hard part of the job is beginning. They hailed and rejoiced their glory. Now it’s time to deal with huge problems. They gained more than 45 percent of the votes on the last elections. People did not give those votes just like that. They are expecting some crucial steps on severe issues. Cyprus, Kurdish issue, Iraq, EU, economic growth showing itself on people's everyday life and so on. Those things are just the beginning.

What about Cyprus

This overwhelming demand can prepare the end of AKP but they also may become the champions of the Turkish people. It’s all in their hands now they have the full control. They managed to pacify the military also (well not entirely but to some extend), the president won’t veto their proposals anymore.

In short, both the people and the EU are expecting some concrete work from now on. Unfortunately, it’s a bit hard. Newly elected president Abdullah Gul may become a puppet of Erdogan. In his whole political career Gul, avoided to make crucial decisions. He always let someone else to take that responsibility. He was one of the founders of the AKP and had a quite good chance to lead the party but he gave way to Erdogan. While he was the foreign minister, he let the military do the talking about the Northern Iraq and practically did nothing. Also he tried to keep his mouth shut about the Cyprus issue.

During the previous AKP government, the easy part of the negotiations started. Most of the talks were on technical issues. This time they just can’t avoid from the Cyprus issue. They have to deal with it in order to open new chapters and this will put AKP between the people and the EU. Because if they accept to open the Turkish ports to the Cypriot ships and planes, in most people’s eyes that would be a concession. Getting out from that difficult situation won’t be easy at all.

We can let them rejoice their glory for now but they better start working because there are plenty of things to deal with. 2008 will be a hell of a year for Turkey.